Is an ‘Off-Year’ Leonid Outburst in the Cards For November?

Annual Stargazing Spectacle Remains Elusive Despite Favorable Conditions

Skywatchers may have to wait another year for a remarkable display of shooting stars during the annual Leonid meteor shower, which peaks each November. Despite favorable viewing conditions created by a new moon and the absence of bright moonlight, astronomers are not optimistic about a significant outburst this year.

Leonid Outbursts: A Rare Occurence

The Leonid meteor shower is known for its occasional spectacular outbursts, which occur when Earth passes through a dense cloud of debris left behind by the comet Tempel-Tuttle. These outbursts can produce thousands of meteors per hour, creating a dazzling celestial show.

Historical Outbursts Provide Hope

While Leonid outbursts are unpredictable, the shower has produced several notable displays in recent decades. In 1999, an outburst produced an estimated 1,000 meteors per hour, while a smaller outburst in 2001 produced around 2,000 meteors per hour.

2023 Forecast: Favorable Conditions but Low Expectations

This year's Leonid shower is expected to take place from November 6th to 30th, with the peak occurring on the night of November 17th-18th. The new moon on November 23rd will provide ideal viewing conditions, as the absence of moonlight will enhance the visibility of meteors.

Reasons for Low Expectations

However, astronomers are cautious in their predictions for an outburst this year. The meteor stream associated with Tempel-Tuttle is relatively diffuse, and Earth is not expected to pass through a particularly dense region of debris. Additionally, the comet's last close approach to the sun was in 1998, and it takes time for the debris to spread out and become detectable.

Tips for Skywatchers

Despite the low expectations for an outburst, skywatchers are still encouraged to seek out dark, open areas and allow their eyes to adjust to the darkness for at least 20 minutes before viewing. The radiant point of the meteor shower will be in the constellation Leo, but meteors can appear anywhere in the sky.

Alternative Celestial Events in November

If the Leonid shower fails to meet expectations, skywatchers can still enjoy other celestial events throughout November. The Orionid meteor shower will peak on the night of October 20th-21st, and the full moon on November 23rd will provide an opportunity for moon gazing and lunar photography.